Why India won't win in West Indies

A tour of the West Indies is one of the most important on the cricket calendar. Like trips to England, Australia or South Africa, a series in the Caribbean is an opportunity for most teams to measure progress as they attempt to topple a traditional power.

Despite West Indies having faded from a dominant force to young strugglers over the last decade, with much said and written about their ills, they still have a proud home record of being beaten just twice in the last 26 years, by Australia (1995) and South Africa (2001). Thus it is slightly surprising that India, with a notorious away record of no series wins outside the subcontinent since 1986, appear from reports to be considered favourites and cautiously but confidently anticipating a series victory.

The confidence is not misplaced. Given form and comparative ability, India *should* expect to win. Yet at the same time, this series is not appreciably different to any other away from home in which India should have performed in recent times but did not. On that basis, there is good reason to believe that India will not win in the West Indies.

Firstly, West Indies are not quite as bad as one might think. Against another dominant home team in Sri Lanka last November, West Indies were whitewashed 3-0, but had encouraging performances by Ramnaresh Sarwan and pushed every match into the fifth day. Against Pakistan in Sharjah, Carl Hooper's young charges were again wiped 2-0, but crucially were without Brian Lara. In that series, young all-rounder Ryan Hinds performed creditably in his first two Tests.

So despite Viv Richards claiming West Indies are at their lowest point, they appear to possess enough young talent, in addition to batting veterans Lara, Hooper and Chanderpaul, to at least be competitive at home. It is a paucity of proven fast bowlers which may be West Indies' weakest area, which is what India will need to exploit.

The facts of the teams' respective records are well known. Though they've been flogged away, in the past few years at home West Indies have beaten Pakistan, Zimbabwe, England and drawn with Australia. In the past 12 months, India have drawn in Zimbabwe and lost in Sri Lanka and South Africa. That is not compelling evidence to suggest India will have an easy time of it, however weak the opposition may be.

Even South Africa had some difficulty overcoming West Indies in the Caribbean in 2000/'01, winning 2-1. If the pitches are as sluggish as they were in that series, periods of high-scoring Indian dominance are likely to be rare, making crease occupation a necessity. If India take West Indies lightly, they will assuredly lose.

In a team lacking stars, West Indies depend on Brian Lara perhaps more than India do Tendulkar, making the Prince's presence invaluable. He returns from a broken arm against India and if he can replicate his pre-injury form, taking 688 runs off a Sri Lankan attack featuring Muralitharan, then India's fielders will be doing some leather chasing across the Caribbean. Harbhajan Singh needs a strategy to combat him and if Lara wins that battle, West Indies will at least be provided competitive scores.

Erapalli Prasanna was quoted as saying recently he would be surprised if West Indies' present crop of bowlers can bowl India out twice, and it is true the likes of Mervyn Dillon, Pedro Collins and Marlon Black should not strike fear in India's batsmen. However, recent history has done little to change the perception India's batting remains susceptible to collapse against fast bowlers overseas, making large totals far from guaranteed, whatever the make-up of the West Indian attack.

While India's batting has been prone to collapse, a lack of quality bowling resources may also be hurtful. India's best chance of dismissing West Indies for low scores lies with spin and Srinath, yet only two spinners have been selected and one of them, Anil Kumble, takes his wickets at an average of 39.9 away from home. Zaheer Khan is yet to truly establish himself as Srinath's partner, and a workhorse seam bowler who can bowl a lot of overs at a good economy rate would be an asset to help Kumble and Harbhajan build pressure. West Indies' batting can be fragile and most likely it will need to be.

One interesting facet of the series will be how the West Indies quicks approach bowling to Sourav Ganguly. Ganguly's Test batting is currently a liability, averaging 27.73 since the start of 2001, and the West Indies bowlers should attempt to exploit his perceived weakness outside off by having him caught in slips or square of the wicket playing away from his body. Conversely, if Ganguly can reverse his form, it would go some way towards helping India to winning totals.

Obviously Tendulkar needs another productive series, but his returns should be cancelled out by Lara in what will be a fascinating head-to-head duel, no matter how much it is played down. At home, Lara would surely expect that whatever Tendulkar can do, he can do it better. Tendulkar averages 62.81 against West Indies; Lara only 42.07 against India. If Lara conquered Murali in Sri Lanka, what will he do to India at home? Those averages should only draw closer.

A lack of a reliable opening pair and wicketkeeper shapes as India's other impediment to securing a series victory. Excellent wicketkeeping can cover for some deficiencies in batting ability, but not the other way around. The Dasgupta dilemma needs a resolution, whatever it may be. Consistent starts are always enormously beneficial, especially overseas, but one suspects the Das/Dasgupta pairing is one West Indies would fancy breaking relatively cheaply.

The fact that it's a five-Test series should not be under-estimated, either. India have not played a series of more than three Tests since the last tour of West Indies in 1997, and the extra mental and physical demands this makes must be taken into account. Five Tests in little more than a month is a strenuous assignment.

Hopefully, India will not under-estimate how difficult it still is to defeat West Indies at home. In light of Viv Richards claim about the state of the West Indian team, the thoughts of West Indian coach Roger Harper seem to have been overlooked. Harper noted in a report recently that West Indies tend to play to their full potential at home, the opposite of India away, and that he expects his team to be "very, very competitive" against India. An intense struggle looms.

Of course, there are also reasons why India should win in West Indies, such as their improving if still under-achieving away form, and the fact that West Indies are entering a home series without Courtney Walsh for the first time. But as India again pursue an elusive away series victory, they cannot be considered favourites. Beating West Indies at home would still be a significant achievement.

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