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The year of the dark horse

In financial year 1999-2000, the BSE Sensex opened at 3686.29 points on April 1, 2000 and closed the year at 5001 points on Friday - a gain of 35.66 per cent. The year has been eventful. It began with the Kargil crisis in May and ended with Bill Clinton's visit.

And since markets always surprise, Kargil pushed the Sensex up while Bill Clinton's visit, although positive, pulled the market down! The Sensex also touched its all-time high in February at 6150 points. And this rise came mainly from the rich valuations of Infosys and a little help from Reliance and ITC.

In this analysis, The Money Channel sifts through all the stocks listed on the BSE and finds out the returns over the year. Since low-priced stocks that appreciate rapidly distort the percentage returns, we took only those companies that were quoting above Rs 20 in the beginning of the year as well as on March 31, 2000. The prices are adjusted for bonus, rights and stock splits.

The big industry winners are obviously software, entertainment and communications companies. But the top scrips that have gained the maximum aren't the usual suspects. The top gainer is Aftek Infosys, appreciating almost 37 times. The leader in the entertainment industry is Gramophone Company at Rs 1,352 from Rs 63.

In telecom, Shyam Telecom and Himachal Futuristic are neck-and-neck at 1,800 per cent returns to investors. In software, Odyssey Technologies, Cyberspace Infosys and Atcom Technologies (Atco Industries earlier) are the top gainers. Needless to say, no market expert at the beginning of the year could have predicted any of these stocks to post such returns.

Even in the five-bagger category, there are plenty of surprises. Among the well-known stocks, Zee, VisualSoft, Wipro and Infosys find a place. The surprises here are Mastek, ICICI Banking, Elbee Services, Global Tele and Apollo Hospitals -- all gaining handsomely.

The list of losers is a gallery of the big-and-famous stocks, including many of the sought-after multinationals. Agrochemical companies like Cyanamid Agro, Punjab Chemicals, Bayer and AgrEvo are the big losers. ITC Agro-Tech and Marico have also fallen substantially due to the vagaries of oilseed prices.

Last year's favourites pharmaceuticals and fast moving consumer goods companies have not only fallen from their subsequent highs, but also from their opening prices in April. This list includes Burroughs Wellcome, Abbott Labs, Fulford India and Wyeth Lederle in pharma, and Bata, Reckitt & Colman, Bausch & Lomb and International Bestfoods have fallen from grace.

The year also shattered the investors of many other multinational companies. Punjab Anand Lamps, Esab India, Kvaerner Cementation, Vesuvius, Hind Lever Chemicals, Ingersoll-Rand, Madura Coats and Carrier Aircon have all halved.

Suddenly, a year seems like a very long time. Many of the expected winners of last year like pharmaceuticals and fast moving consumer goods stocks have eroded investor wealth.

If you were chasing them with the rest of the market and didn't book profits at the right time, you would be a loser. The emergence of the dark horses has a lesson for everyone in the forecasting business. We wonder what this list will look like same time next year.

THE TEN-BAGGER CLUB

Company	Price (31/3/2000)	Price (1/4/1999)	Gain (%)
Aftek Infosys	3618	95.7	3680.56
Odyssey Technologies	754	26.5	2745.28
Gramophone	1352	63	2046.03
Cyberspace Infosys	1139	55.5	1952.25
Shyam Telecom	741	38.25	1837.25
Himachal Futuristic	1693	87.5	1834.86
Atcom Technologies	423.7	22.8	1758.33

THE FIVE-BAGGERS

Company	Price (31/3/2000)	Price (1/4/1999)	Gain (%)
Zee Telefilms	1022	97.7	946.06
Mastek	4263	417	922.30
ICICI Banking	260	27	862.96
Information and Tech	2532	265.95	852.06
Phoenix Mills	1390	155	796.77
Elbee Services	194.95	22.3	774.22
Bombay Swadeshi Stores	202	23.5	759.57
Global Tele-systems	2213	265.7	732.89
Apollo Hospitals	309.75	38.95	695.25
Sri Adhikari Brothers	1022	136	651.47
Salora International	292.1	39.5	639.49
Khandwala Securities	512.45	70.9	622.78
VisualSoft	7600	1105	587.78
Wipro	5493	810	578.15
SSI	4434	674	557.86
Hikal Chemical	282	44	540.91
Infosys	8902	1414	529.56
Panacea Biotech	420.1	67.9	518.70

OTHER GAINERS

Company	Price (31/3/2000)	Price (1/4/1999)	Gain (%)
Jayant Agro	264.4	44.5	494.16
Crest Communication	507	85.45	493.33
Morepen	1090	190.4	472.48
Worldwide Technologies	231.15	43.25	434.45
Satyam Computer	4429	850	421.06
Goldstone Engg	324.2	63.05	414.20
Hitech Gears	325	65	400.00
Reliance Capital	167.1	33.5	398.81
LCC Infotech	165.15	33.3	395.95
Omega Interactive	148.35	30	394.50
Rossell	159	32.5	389.23
Alps Industries	163.15	34.25	376.35
Krone Communication	423.4	90.15	369.66
Nirma	1490	329	352.89
Ultramarine & Pigments	250	56.75	340.53
Sterlite	781	180.4	332.93
Leading Edge	1996	472.5	322.43
Relaxo Footwear	211	50	322.00
Mindteck	200.05	47.8	318.51
DSQ Software	1630	389.75	318.22
Sonata Software	1673	402.25	315.91
SB&T International	90.35	22.1	308.82

THE BIG LOSERS

Company	Price (31/3/2000)	Price (1/4/1999)	Loss (%)
Cyanamid Agro	135.25	462	-70.73
ITC Agro-Tech	67.5	230.5	-70.72
Punjab Chem	64	218.2	-70.67
Punjab Anand Lamps	61	183.5	-66.76
Zodiac Clothing	95.05	277.1	-65.70
Marico	255	737	-65.40
Bayer (India)	925	2667	-65.32
Kothari Products	81.65	234.8	-65.23
Tata Infotech	402.65	1068	-62.30
Esab India	37	97.95	-62.23
Vanavil Dyes	30.6	80.55	-62.01
Burroughs Wellcome	382	999	-61.76
Amara Raja	109	284.5	-61.69
Kvaerner Cementation	170	436.25	-61.03
Abbott Labs	540	1382	-60.93
Fulford India	297.8	754	-60.50
Vesuvius India	48.05	119.5	-59.79
Vashisti Detergents	26.8	66.65	-59.79
Sab Nife	31.25	77.6	-59.73
Ingersoll-Rand	225.45	559.75	-59.72
Bata	109	270	-59.63
Wyeth Lederle	271.05	670	-59.54
Voltas	41.55	102.5	-59.46
Madura Coats	20.55	50.55	-59.35
Hind Lever Chem	256	626	-59.11
Siris	56	136.8	-59.06
Modipon	21.1	51	-58.63
Williamson Magor	38.65	93.2	-58.53
SmithKline Pharma	222	527	-57.87
Alembic Glass	142.1	336.5	-57.77
Asian Electronics	39.3	92.55	-57.54
Carrier Aircon	90	211.8	-57.51
Gestetner	36	83.75	-57.01
Steelage	60.45	140	-56.82
Reckitt & Colman	210.2	483.25	-56.50
Bausch & Lomb	57.25	130.8	-56.23
E Merck	310	705	-56.03
Wartsila NSD	140	312.25	-55.16
Goodricke Group	59.2	131.4	-54.95
Honda SIEL	81.95	178	-53.96
Gulf Oil	61	130	-53.08
Malwa Cotton	48	102	-52.94
International Bestfoods	165	348.56	-52.66
Swaraj Engines	409	861	-52.50
International Travel House	30.7	64.35	-52.29
AgrEvo	420	860	-51.16
Glaxo	450	921	-51.14
Hitechi Jewellery	108.75	220.9	-50.77
Maral Overseas	26.5	53.25	-50.23
SSL	23.45	47	-50.11

(All prices adjusted for bonus, rights and stock splits)

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